Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

268
FXUS64 KTSA 251722
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

 - Additional severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and
   evening. Higher-end severe weather threats are possible.

 - Severe storms may also occur Sunday but confidence is lower.

 - Thunderstorm chances linger into Monday and Tuesday across
   eastern areas, but the severe weather potential appears to be
   lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A dry remainder of the overnight is expected, with the evening
shower and thunderstorm activity shifting south and east of the
area. Light winds and plenty of ground moisture resulting from the
rains of the past 24 hours will lead to patchy fog potential in
much of the region tonight. Visibility reductions to a mile or
less will be possible in localized areas, but widespread dense
fog is not expected.

The dry weather is likely to extend through much of the day
Saturday, with thunderstorm potential increasing by mid to late
afternoon. There should be two favored areas for the initial
development, near the warm front stretched across east central
Oklahoma into southeast Oklahoma and farther to the north and east
near the nose of the mid level jet max. Surface-based instability
and wind shear parameters are supportive of supercell
thunderstorms featuring high-end severe weather threats in both
initiation areas, although a slightly higher potential will exist
across the area nearest the warm front. Strong tornadoes will be a
possibility given forecast soundings, especially early evening
once the low level jet strengthens. The main severe window will
extend through late evening and possibly into the early morning
hours of Sunday, although more elevated storms may linger beyond
that with a lower but non-zero severe weather threat.

If you have plans that take you or your family away from home
from mid afternoon into the evening, please make sure to have
reliable ways to keep tabs on the weather tomorrow and know where
you might seek shelter no matter where you are at.

In addition to the severe weather threats, locally heavy rainfall
and isolated instances of flash flooding will remain a concern,
especially given how much rain has fallen in the past 24 hours
across the region. Parts of northeast and east central Oklahoma,
extending into western Arkansas, should be most favored given the
antecedent conditions but any area that sees repeated heavy rain
producing storms tomorrow into tomorrow night will be at risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Daybreak Sunday should feature an overall decrease in the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms, which should continue through at
least midday. The severe weather threat on Sunday will likely be
more conditional than that expected on Saturday. The environment
will be supportive of higher end severe weather threats, although
widespread thunderstorm development is not as certain. There
should be two main areas of potential development, including
closer to the dryline in western and central Oklahoma and with the
northward lifting warm front across eastern Oklahoma and
eventually, western Arkansas. With the main upper level system
expected to eject well the north into the central and northern
Plains region, surface boundaries will be slow to completely exit
our area to the east, keeping at least low potential for showers
and thunderstorms across eastern parts of the area Monday and
possibly into Tuesday as well. The severe weather threat early
next week with any storms will be lower than both Saturday and
Sunday but non-zero. Toward the middle of next week, surface high
pressure looks to extend far enough south to bring drier low level
air to the region, pushing the shower and thunderstorm potential
to the south for a brief period and bringing below normal
temperatures. Another storm system approaching from the
southwestern United States toward the end of next week will bring
another increase in shower and thunderstorm potential to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail the next few hours but with
exceptions. KMLC and KFSM may have periods of MVFR as well due to
low clouds lowering ceilings to 2-3 kft. In time, these clouds may
return to the Tulsa area as well this afternoon for a time as well
but the ceiling height is uncertain. Severe thunderstorms will
likely occur across east central through southeast OK and west-
central AR late this afternoon and evening. Impacts may include
large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain. The outlook is less
certain for the northern TAF sites, but thunderstorms may also
occur here, but the confidence is lower. Additional storm activity
may return overnight, particularly for eastern Oklahoma. Low
ceilings will develop across the area as this occurs, potentially
down to 1-2 kft briefly. Winds will remain out of the east to
southeast for much of the period, with a few gusts to 15-20 kts at
times, but usually lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  62  79  69 /  50  70  30  30
FSM   79  62  82  69 /  30  80  30  40
MLC   79  63  83  71 /  60  90  20  20
BVO   79  57  78  64 /  50  60  30  30
FYV   78  59  79  65 /  10  70  40  50
BYV   76  59  77  66 /  10  70  40  60
MKO   78  61  80  69 /  50  80  30  30
MIO   79  59  78  67 /  20  70  40  50
F10   80  60  82  69 /  60  80  30  20
HHW   80  63  82  68 /  50  90  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06