Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

686
FXUS64 KTSA 220409
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1009 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1006 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

 - Warming trend continues on Sunday.

 - Mild weather next week with shower/thunderstorm chances mainly
   Monday night/Tuesday and again on Thursday.

  -Mild and dry conditions Christmas day over much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 916 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Mostly clear skies along with calm to light southeast winds were
common across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening
while the backside of surface high pressure moved through the
region. In response...temps in the mid 20s to mid 30s were
reported over the CWA.

The western periphery of surface high pressure is expected to
remain along the eastern half of the CWA tonight. At the same
time...surface low pressure lee of the Rocky Mountains will
continue to slide southeast into the Northern/Central Plains. A
tightening pressure gradient between these two features will help
to begin increasing southerly winds across northeast Oklahoma
late tonight/Sunday morning. This should keep temps from
completely bottoming out overnight underneath mostly
clear/passing high clouds. Forecast low temps in the 20s to low
30s remain on track...with the colder temps expected within the
terrain of far southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas...still
under the western periphery of surface high pressure. This is
already represented within the ongoing forecast. Thus...for the
evening update have only added minor tweaks to hourly
temp/dewpoint/wind trends based on conditions/latest observations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Warming trend continues on Sunday with gusty south winds developing.
With only modest low level moisture return, at least limited fire
weather concerns are expected.

Patchy drizzle or widely scattered light rain showers will be
possible into the day Monday as stronger warm advection develops
in advance of approaching upper system to the west. Areas of rain
will likely become more widespread Monday night, with a few
embedded thunderstorms south of I-40, in association with system
as surface low tracks east near the Red River. Highest rainfall
totals are still expected along/south of I-44 where an inch is
possible, including a few pockets of locally higher amounts.
Scattered showers will likely persist on Tuesday before rain
shifts east of the region Tuesday night.

There is a slight chance for a few lingering showers across far
southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas Christmas morning but
most locations will likely remain dry with mild/cloudy conditions.

Active weather pattern will continue with a stronger mid level
short wave shifting into the southern Plains on Thursday. ECMWF
has shown some run to run inconsistencies concerning track of
upper low and remains further south compared to the GFS.
Regardless, it appears that rain chances will likely be higher
than current NBM guidance and have adjusted accordingly. Likely
PoPs may be needed on subsequent forecast, especially if EC
continues to trend toward the more progressive / northern track
progged by GFS.

Quickly on the heels of storm system on Thursday, another mid
level shortwave could again move into the region on Friday. Given
the larger uncertainties this far into the extended periods will
stay with only slight chance NBM PoPs for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1009 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail tonight into Sunday. Light SE sfc
winds will become more southerly and gusty by mid-morning Sunday,
with gusts near 20 kts thru the afternoon across E OK. Low level
moisture return will occur rapidly Sunday night, with the
potential for MVFR cigs spreading over the E OK TAF sites aft 03Z
tomorrow evening.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  54  42  53 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   28  55  39  53 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   31  55  44  55 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   23  54  38  53 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   22  52  37  53 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   27  52  38  52 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   28  54  41  55 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   27  53  40  51 /   0   0   0  20
F10   29  55  42  56 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   30  53  42  57 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30